“Don’t Bet Against Occam” is a phrase that encapsulates the principle of Occam’s Razor, which is a problem-solving principle attributed to the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. The principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. In other words, the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, all things being equal.
The phrase “Don’t Bet Against Occam” suggests that when faced with a complex problem or a set of data, it is generally a good idea to favor the simplest explanation that accounts for all the known facts, rather than more complicated ones that may seem to fit the data but require more assumptions. It is a heuristic that advises caution against over-explanation or over-complication in scientific inquiry, philosophy, and everyday decision-making.
It’s important to note that Occam’s Razor is not a law of nature or a strict rule, but rather a useful guide that helps to minimize assumptions and complexity. Sometimes more complex theories are necessary to accurately explain phenomena, but the principle encourages careful consideration before embracing complexity.